The climate-dependent inputs used in the TYNDP 2026 scenario assessment are derived from the Pan European Climate Database version 4.2 (PECDv4.2). PECDv4.2 has been developed by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) in collaboration with European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E). It provides climate variables and energy-related indicators across large temporal and spatial scales and is specifically designed to support pan European power system and energy studies aiming to increase the resilience of future energy systems under consideration of climate change.
PECDv4.2 builds upon previous Pan-European Climate Database (PECD) releases by extending the temporal coverage of the dataset and by introducing updated climate simulations and improved energy conversion methodologies.
In particular, it combines long historical time series based on climate reanalysis with forward looking climate projections, enabling the representation of both observed climate variability and future climate conditions over long term horizons.
Structure of the database
PECDv4.2 is organised around two main data streams:
- a historical stream, based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Version 5 (ERA5) reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, providing climate variables and derived energy indicators from 1950 to near present; and
- a projection stream, covering the period 2015 – 2100, based on temporally and spatially downscaled and bias adjusted climate simulations from an Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity-guided subset of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate models under multiple greenhouse gas emission scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP); SSP1 2.6, SSP2 4.5, SSP3 7.0 and SSP5 8.5).
For both streams, climate variables are first produced at gridded level over the PECD domain (18°N–75°N, 31°W–45°E) at 0.25° × 0.25° horizontal resolution and hourly (or daily / weekly where applicable) temporal resolution. Energy indicators are then derived using dedicated conversion models and provided primarily as spatially aggregated time series for predefined regions.
Climate variables
The core climate variables available in PECDv4.2 include:
- near surface air temperature at 2 m above ground;
- population weighted temperature;
- wind speed at 10 m and 100 m above ground;
- total precipitation; and
- surface solar radiation downwards (global horizontal irradiance).
Population weighted temperature is computed at onshore bidding zone level using a gridded population mask, enabling a temperature indicator that better reflects population exposure and is suitable for demand related analyses.
For wind speed, PECDv4.2 applies an explicit treatment of vertical wind profiles through a power law formulation, using spatially and temporally resolved coefficients derived from ERA5. Compared to approaches relying on constant shear assumptions, this methodology enables a more realistic extrapolation to near surface wind to turbine relevant heights.
The Global Wind Atlas is further used for additional bias adjustment of wind speeds.
Energy indicators and conversion models
Based on the climate variables, PECDv4.2 provides energy indicators for four main technologies: wind power, solar photovoltaic (PV), concentrated solar power (CSP), and hydropower.
- Wind power indicators are derived using physical wind to power conversion models. Profiles are provided separately for existing wind installations and for a range of future wind technologies, characterised by combinations of hub height and specific power. The bias adjustment of wind speeds based on the Global Wind Atlas is applied within PECDv4.2 and affects both climate variables and indirectly the derived wind power indicators, improving the representation of wind resource intensity and spatial heterogeneity compared to earlier PECD versions. Wind power capacity factors are provided on an hourly basis.
- Solar photovoltaic indicators are computed using a physically based modelling framework that converts irradiance and temperature into PV generation, accounting for optical losses, temperature effects and inverter losses. PECDv4.2 introduces multiple PV technology types—residential rooftop, industrial rooftop, utility scale fixed and utility scale tracking—allowing different installation configurations to be represented at an aggregated level, while solar PV indicators are also provided at gridded level over the 0.25° × 0.25° PECD domain. Solar photovoltaic generation capacity factors are provided on an hourly basis.
- Concentrated solar power is modelled using a technology specific physical representation of the solar field, power block and thermal storage, producing both pre dispatch and dispatched generation profiles for different storage configurations. Concentrated solar generation capacity factors are provided on an hourly basis.
- Hydropower indicators are produced using statistical models that relate temperature and precipitation to generation and inflows for different hydropower technologies, including reservoirs, run of river, pondage and pumped storage. For the historical stream, these models are trained and validated against observed generation and storage data where available and used to reconstruct long time series consistent with the ERA5 climate record. Hydropower indicators are provided on a weekly basis.
Spatial aggregation
PECDv4.2 supports multiple spatial aggregation levels relevant for European energy system analysis, including countries, sub national regions, bidding zones and pan European onshore and offshore zones. Aggregation is performed using floating point spatial masks derived from harmonised geographical shapefiles, allowing area weighted averaging of gridded climate and energy data.
Climate variables are generally available both at gridded and aggregated levels, while most energy indicators are delivered as aggregated time series. Solar PV indicators constitute an exception, as both gridded and aggregated products are provided.
Role in the TYNDP 2026 scenarios
Within the TYNDP 2026 framework, PECDv4.2 provides the underlying climate and weather dependent inputs used to derive renewable generation profiles, hydropower availability and temperature related effects on electricity demand.
For the projection stream applied in the TYNDP 2026 scenarios, climate data are taken from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2 4.5) emission scenario available in PECDv4.2.
