The Ten-Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) 2026 Scenario Package provides a transparent and cross-sectoral outlook for the future European energy system. It is jointly developed by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO‑E) and the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) to underpin the Union‑wide TYNDPs. The scenarios establish a consistent quantitative basis for electricity, gas, and hydrogen infrastructure assessment. The Scenarios ensure that network planning decisions are grounded in policy‑aligned and stakeholder‑informed assumptions.
Scenarios are not meant to forecast the future. They are exploratory tools rather than predictive exercises, illustrating how developments may unfold under different assumptions regarding policy, technology, markets, and societal trends.
Given the uncertainty about those developments and the complexity of the exercise, the TYNDP Scenarios — ranging from the modelling of demand of multiple energy carriers to highly detailed pan-European electricity and hydrogen system representations — necessarily rely on simplifications and assumptions. To support the use and interpretation of the scenarios by industry, academia and the wider stakeholder community, the reports and their appendices give more context on how to interpret the results. Nevertheless, these scenarios constitute one of the most comprehensive and detailed representations of possible developments in European energy demand and supply. Being anchored in National and European policy objectives as well as climate ambitions, they provide the basis for pan European infrastructure planning within the respective Ten-Year Network Development Plans (TYNDP) 2026, and further analytical work. The TYNDP 2026 Scenario Framework comprises one Central Scenario (also called National Trends+ (NT+)), reflecting the latest national strategies, updated National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs), and EU policies.
It is complemented by two Economic Variants which differ in high and low economic growth. These variants function as stress tests of the Central Scenario. They provide insights into the robustness of infrastructure needs under differing macro‑economic conditions. These are in line with the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) “TYNDP Scenarios Guidelines”. Scenario inputs were subject to a policy cut‑off date with extensive validation at national level by TSOs and national authorities.
This cycle marks the first full implementation of ACER’s TYNDP Scenarios Framework Guidelines from the start of the process. The scenario development followed a structured, transparent, and inclusive methodology, covering preparation, objective‑driven design, and comprehensive stakeholder engagement. A fully operational Stakeholder Reference Group (SRG), public consultations and the publication of methodologies and datasets ensured effective scrutiny and accountability throughout the process. The scenario results are benchmarked with relevant external studies, including European Commission (EC) and Joint Research Centre (JRC) scenarios, to enhance comparability and credibility.
Compliance with the EU’s 2030 energy and climate targets and the 2050 climate neutrality objective is a core design feature of the scenario set. Where gaps between aggregated national trajectories and EU‑wide objectives remained, a transparent gap-filling methodology was applied. This approach ensured consistency with Union targets while preserving national input where possible. This highlights the structural gap between current policy trajectories and agreed EU targets, which requires additional adjustments at EU level to ensure consistency with the climate objectives. Achieving such consistency would require further improvements in energy efficiency, accelerated deployment of renewable energy sources, and enhanced integration across electricity, gas and hydrogen systems. The achievement of these outcomes therefore depends on the timely implementation of these developments within the assumed time horizons.
The TYNDP 2026 scenarios highlight a structural transformation of Europe’s energy system towards climate neutrality by 2050. Over the long term, final energy demand declines, driven by efficiency gains and the progressive electrification of end-use sectors.
At the same time, electricity demand increases significantly. This growth is driven by electrification in transport, widespread deployment of heat pumps, the transformation of industrial processes, and the expansion of hydrogen production via electrolysis, among other factors. As a form of indirect electrification, electrolysis increasingly relies on renewable electricity and is aligned with periods of high renewable generation, thereby also contributing to system flexibility.
Methane demand steadily decreases and reaches full decarbonisation by 2050 through the use of biomethane and synthetic gases. This decline is more gradual in final consumption sectors, while a faster phase-out is observed in the power generation sector.
Hydrogen emerges as a key energy carrier for hard-to-abate sectors such as parts of industry and transport. Beyond its role in direct applications, hydrogen contributes to system flexibility and serves as a critical input for the production of e-fuels. Over time, hydrogen demand for e-fuel production increases significantly, becoming comparable in scale to direct hydrogen use.
Overall, the scenarios depict a progressive decarbonisation pathway towards an integrated energy system in which electricity and hydrogen play a central role.
