3 Purpose of the TYNDP scenarios //

The TYNDP Scenarios represent the cornerstone for the development of Union-wide electricity and gas / hydrogen TYNDPs, serving as the primary input for the identification of the gaps in electricity and gas / hydrogen infrastructure at European level. Scenarios also provide the framework for the Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) of cross-border electricity and hydrogen infrastructure projects, supporting the optimisation of EU energy grid development while minimising overall system costs and ensuring a safe and affordable energy supply for European consumers.

The TYNDP Scenarios are designed to capture the impact of EU policies and their implementation at national level at the given point in time. In doing so, they provide a structured framework for analysing possible pathways towards achieving the EU objective of climate neutrality by 2050.

Scenarios are developed jointly through close collaboration between ENTSOG and ENTSO-E and provide a coherent and consistent outlook across gas, hydrogen and electricity systems. This joint approach enables the identification of synergies and interdependencies between different energy carriers and supports the assessment of infrastructure needs on a cross-sectoral basis.

More specifically, the joint scenarios:

Regulation (EU) 2022 / 869 (‘Trans-European Networks for Energy (TEN-E) Regulation’)¹ requires ENTSO-E and ENTSOG to jointly develop scenarios for the future European energy system in support of their respective TYNDPs, in accordance with the Framework Guidelines issued by ACER, and applied consistently across the Union-wide TYNDP process.

In January 2023, ACER published the Framework Guidelines for the joint TYNDP scenarios to be developed by ENTSO for Electricity and ENTSO for Gas “TYNDP Scenarios Guidelines”, defining the requirements for both the scenario development process – including stakeholder involvement- and the characteristics of robust, objective-driven scenarios to be assessed by ACER, Member States, the European Commission and the ESABCC.

TYNDP 2026 is the first scenario cycle developed fully in line with these Framework Guidelines from the outset, allowing their requirements to be consistently integrated throughout the scenario-building process. Further information on compliance with the Framework Guidelines is provided in Chapter 5.